Red Crater is just there. Somewhere in the gloom. Maybe 300m away.
But I can’t see it. There’s swirling cloud that reduces visibility to 10m, pelting tiny icey bullets of rain, and ferocious winds that pull me in 101 directions at once.
It’s getting dicey on this most exposed stretch of the Tongariro Alpine Crossing, part of the Tongariro Northern Circuit Great Walk. There aren’t many others out but I’ve seen some wearing ponchos, one in jeans, another with plastic bags inside their shoes, and one blown clean off their feet by a huge gust of wind.
I’m struggling to walk in a straight line and stay upright. Finally, despite the summit fever gripping me, I decide to turn around.
It’s the right decision – a DOC staff member tells me that wind gusts at Red Crater are recording 110km/hour.
Lainey Cowan from Tararua Tramping Club recounts a similar experience on that section of the Great Walk. “The weather clagged in. There was nowhere to shelter while waiting to ascend the single-file path. I got very chilled.”
Cowan was recovering from major surgery and made the call to turn back. “I ‘gave up’, but a few others were turning back so I wasn’t alone, and as soon as we headed downhill, I cheered up and warmed up … I was so close to the highest point but I did the safest thing.”
Not everyone who sets out on a Great Walk will make the right decisions when it comes to the weather. In July 2016, Czech trampers Ondrej Petr and Pavlina Pizova made headlines when walking the Routeburn Track without adequate winter gear. When the weather closed in, tragically they kept going instead of turning back. Petr died of hypothermia; Pizova continued to Lake Mackenzie Hut where she stayed for 24 days until she was found.
Tramping and bad weather often go together. “Most of New Zealand’s Great Walks are in mountainous areas, so weather conditions are changeable and subject to cold, wind, rain and snow at times [even during the Great Walks season from October to April],” says Andy Roberts, visitor safety team manager at the Department of Conservation. “Walkers need to be prepared for all eventualities and note forecasted conditions.”
Heavy rain, windstorms and drought, with its associated fire risk, are the most concerning, says Roberts. “In those cases, rangers would probably close the tracks as risk thresholds could be exceeded.”
He said during the period July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, six of the 10 Great Walks were affected by extreme weather. The Whanganui River Journey was closed due to high river levels on 28 days, and the Paparoa Track had 13 closure days, mainly due to high winds but also heavy rain and snow. The Milford Track was closed for seven days due to flooding, and the Routeburn Track was closed for two days due to snow and partially closed for two days due to high winds and heavy rain. The Kepler Track was closed on four days across the tops from Luxmore to Iris Burn due to high winds and snow, and the Tongariro Northern Circuit had 28 weather advisories issued – notices of potential poor weather to watch out for.
Storm damage to the Great Walks cost $5.6m in the five financial years 2017–22.
“Each of the Great Walks tracks has its own particular vulnerabilities to the weather,” says Mike Daisley, NZ Mountain Safety Council chief executive. He points to rainfall, especially for the Milford, Routeburn and Kepler tracks, which all sit within Fiordland National Park. “This is the wettest part of Aotearoa, experiencing very high rainfall – up to 9000mm a year. Weather conditions on these tracks can change quickly in any season and sudden rainfall may cause flooding, slips and track damage without warning,” Daisley notes.
Such an event occurred this year, when 250mm of rain fell in Fiordland on one February day, leading to more than two dozen trampers being helicoptered off the Milford Track. And in February 2020, there was forced closure of the Routeburn Track after heavy rain led to landslides and the destruction of Howden Hut. Tramper Josh Moffitt told RNZ in an interview after being rescued from the scene. “Some people started to hear faint rumblings and shifting sounds. And then maybe 30 seconds of really loud roaring, you know, a bearing down freight train sort of sound, followed by splintering, crushing and then screaming … The toilet block, which is between us and another outbuilding – five bays of toilet cubicles – was non-existent, just wiped … that could have been our whole hut.”
Daisley says about 12 per cent of search and rescues involve inclement weather conditions, but adds that other factors are often at play, such as insufficient preparation, inadequate clothing, navigational errors, or when trampers decide to wait out bad weather but are unable to alert friends and family of their delay. “To avoid an unnecessary rescue operation when people aren’t in danger, we recommend trampers take a two-way communication device that isn’t dependent on cell coverage,” Daisley says.
Contending with bad weather on a Great Walk is very unpleasant, but it could become more common in future, says Nava Fedaeff, manager of climate, atmosphere and hazards at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. “With a warming climate we will see more extreme weather events.”
She says future projections suggest more extremes at both ends of the spectrum – dry days and the risk of drought and fire as well as increased rainfall.
DOC has published a climate change adaptation action plan with risk assessments being made on tracks.
One problem as a tramper, Fedaeff says, is that you have to book a Great Walk in advance not knowing what the weather will be like. She tramped the Routeburn in persistent rain a couple of years ago. “It was beautiful, but I would have liked to see the tops of the mountains.”
Christchurch tramper Julia Van Essen was caught out on her first multi-day hike, the Abel Tasman Coast Track, in heavy rain. “My wet weather gear was not the best. I got soaked through and thoroughly sick of the whole thing. I learned from that experience and never went out with poor wet weather gear again.”
Since then Van Essen has walked several of the Great Walks. On the Kepler Track she experienced rain and snow across the alpine ridge. “I was much better prepared with good wet weather gear and merino layers,” she says.
Having the right gear made all the difference, but it wasn’t like that for everyone. “One girl in the hut was trying to ultra-lightweight the Kepler. She looked like she regretted it. She was cold and wet, but not dangerously so. Thanks to the DOC wardens for maintaining huts and wood supplies, we were able to dry everything off for the next day.”
Van Essen says she would be keen to walk the Kepler again. “It was quite fun when the snow came, but we didn’t hang around … I missed out on some of the views because of the cloud cover.”
The weather can affect a Great Walks experience, but Daisley says, “People should not be put off by a little bit of rain or wind … but if there’s a heavy rain warning for the area, they may need to change plans or postpone their trip.”
The bottom line is to be prepared for all eventualities. Always take extra food and a personal locator beacon. If you are caught out on a track, move away from riverbanks and find somewhere safe to wait out the weather. This will make it easier for emergency services to find you if needed.
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